Babu Owino and Agnes Kagure are running almost even in the Nairobi governor race according to a fresh poll from Mwelekeo Insights.
The latest results put Babu Owino slightly ahead at 22.4 percent while Agnes Kagure sits Right behind him at 22.3 percent.
The tiny gap shows just how close the contest has become ahead of the 2027 elections. Other names appear further back, with Ronald Karauri on 16.1 percent and George Aladwa on 15.3 percent Margaret Wanjiru KMM 11.5 Geoffrey Mosiria NEDP 3.4 and James Gakuya DCP 1.6, but the real story remains the near-dead heat between the top two.
The race for Nairobi’s top seat has drawn plenty of attention because the capital is always a major prize. Babu Owino, the Embakasi East MP running under The Movement Party, has built a strong following through his outspoken style and grassroots connections.
Agnes Kagure, a businesswoman contesting on the Kenya Patriotic Party ticket, has also gained ground with her focus on practical leadership and service delivery. Their almost identical support levels suggest voters are still weighing their options carefully, and small shifts in the coming months could decide who pulls ahead.
Calls from home in Nyeri
Even as the Nairobi poll places her in such a strong position, Agnes Kagure faces growing pressure from another direction. Professionals and community groups in Nyeri have openly called on her to leave the Nairobi race and contest the Nyeri governor seat instead. Many of them point to her family roots in the county and argue that her leadership skills would serve Nyeri better. Youth groups have held public gatherings with placards declaring her their preferred choice for Nyeri, and some local leaders have urged her to consider a homecoming run.
These calls create an interesting side story. Kagure has engaged with grassroots voices in Nyeri and has spoken about the importance of listening to people’s aspirations.
At the same time, her strong showing in the Nairobi poll makes it clear she remains a serious contender in the capital. Supporters in Nairobi have pushed back against any idea of her switching counties, insisting the city needs her focus. The situation leaves her with a real decision to make as the political calendar moves forward.
The rest of the field adds further layers to the Nairobi contest. Incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja appears lower in the rankings, while other aspirants continue to organise.
Party nominations and possible alliances will likely shape the final line-up, but for now the Mwelekeo Insights figures highlight a clear two-person battle at the top.
The closeness of the percentages means both leading candidates will need to keep working hard to convert soft support into firm votes.
Campaign activity is expected to intensify in the months ahead. Nairobi voters care about everyday issues such as transport, housing, markets, and security. Candidates who speak clearly on these matters and show they understand life in the city stand a better chance of building lasting support.
The current poll serves as an early projection rather than a final verdict, yet it already shows how competitive the race has become.
Mwelekeo Insights continues to provide useful snapshots of public opinion across Kenya through its digital polls and surveys.
The firm specialises in gathering views on politics, governance, and social issues, giving ordinary people a chance to register their preferences in real time.
One of their earlier exercises looked at the Mombasa governor race, where incumbent Abdulswamad Nassir led with 39.9 percent support while Ali Menza Mbogo followed closely at 33.3 percent.
That poll, like the latest Nairobi one, offered an early look at how voters were thinking long before election day. By releasing clear percentage breakdowns without heavy technical language, Mwelekeo Insights helps keep the public conversation grounded in what people are actually saying.
Their work on both coastal and capital city races shows a consistent effort to track shifting political moods as the country moves toward 2027.
