A recent survey by Mwelekeo Insights has revealed a highly competitive race for the Member of Parliament seat in Embakasi South Constituency. The new data, which looks ahead to the 2027 General Election, shows that the voters are currently split between several strong candidates, with no single person holding a clear majority.
The survey was conducted to gauge the current mood of the people and see how the political landscape is shaping up in this busy part of Nairobi.
The Top Contenders
According to the findings, the race is extremely close at the top. Eric Janganya of the Linda Mwananchi is currently leading the pack with 24.2% of the support.
He is followed very closely by Julius Mawathe of the Wiper Democratic Movement, who is just one percentage point behind at 23.2%. The difference between these two candidates is small, suggesting that the competition will be intense in the coming years.
Hot on their heels is Irshad Sumra of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), who has secured 21.7% of the vote in this survey.
With the top three candidates all polling in the low twenties, it is clear that the voters are still making up their minds. This means that any of these three could easily take the lead as the election gets closer.
The Mid-Field and Other Candidates
Behind the top three, there is a gap, but the race is still active. Samwel Masaki of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is currently in fourth place with 11.8% of the support. He is followed closely by Victor Ochieng Ogweno of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), who stands at 11%.
These two candidates will be looking to gain more ground by appealing to the undecided voters in the constituency.
Further down the list, Jared Oundo of the Forum for Restoration of Democracy in Kenya (FORD-Kenya) currently holds 4.6% of the support, while Calystus Wafula of the Amani National Congress (ANC) is at 3.4%.
While their numbers are lower in this specific survey, politics is unpredictable, and they still have time to build their campaigns and increase their visibility among the residents of Embakasi South.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The data from Mwelekeo Insights highlights a few important things. First, the electorate is highly fragmented. Because the top candidates are so close in numbers, the winner will likely be the person who can convince the remaining undecided voters to join their side.
Second, the high number of candidates from different political parties shows that there is a lot of interest in this seat.
It is important to note that this is a survey, which is a view of opinion at a specific time. As the 2027 election approaches, these numbers can change based on campaigns, alliances, and local issues.
About Mwelekeo Insights
Mwelekeo Insights continues to play a vital role in informing the public about the political temperature in the country. Just like the past surveys conducted by the organization, such as the Embakasi East MP Survey and the Kibra Constituency Parliamentary Poll, this Embakasi South poll provides a clear view of where the voters stand right now.
In those previous surveys, Mwelekeo Insights also broke down the support for each candidate by percentage, showing which leaders were ahead and which ones were trailing.
By sharing these percentages and rankings, Mwelekeo Insights helps Kenyans understand the popularity of various leaders and parties, ensuring that the public is well-informed as the country moves toward the next general election.
