A recent digital survey by Mwelekeo Insights offers a clear view of voter preferences for the 2027 Mombasa gubernatorial race.
The findings place Abdulswamad Nassir of the Orange Democratic Movement at the top with 39.9 percent support. Close behind is Ali Menza Mbogo of Linda Mwananchi, who holds 33.3 percent.
Together these two candidates command a large share of the early preference, pointing to a closely watched contest between them.
Mohamed Ali, better known as Jicho Pevu and running under the Wiper Democratic Movement, comes third with 19.3 percent.
This places him some distance behind the leaders yet still gives him a meaningful base that could grow as the campaign season advances.
Suleiman Shahbal, also of the Orange Democratic Movement, registers 3.7 percent, while Hassan Omar of the United Democratic Alliance stands at 3.3 percent. A small remainder of 0.6 percent is shared among other names.
These percentages suggest that the race is already taking shape around a few key figures. Nassir’s lead may reflect name recognition and the established presence of his party along the coast.
Mbogo’s strong second place shows that many voters are ready to consider alternatives beyond the larger traditional parties. Jicho Pevu’s third-place showing keeps him in the conversation, especially if he can expand his reach.
The lower figures for the remaining candidates indicate that attention is likely to stay focused on the top three for now.
With more than a year remaining before the 2027 elections, public opinion can still shift. Campaigns, local concerns such as employment, infrastructure and security, and wider national developments will all play a part. Residents of Mombasa will watch how the leading candidates respond to everyday issues that matter most to them. The gap between first and second is noticeable but not so wide that it cannot close, leaving room for movement as more people begin to pay closer attention.
The survey serves as an early view rather than a final prediction. It reminds observers that preferences can change and that continued engagement with the public will be important in the months ahead.
MWELEKEO INSIGHTSÂ
Based in Nairobi, Mwelekeo Insights is a research firm that gathers and analyses public views on politics, governance and social matters across Kenya, aiming to present the findings in a clear and straightforward way.
