A new survey by Mwelekeo Insights on the Kisumu West Constituency Member of Parliament seat for 2027 shows Leslie Daniel Oyola (Independent) leading with 57.9 percent, followed by Elisha Jack Oraro of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) with 24.5 percent and Job Hosea Agago of ODM with 15.5 percent.
The poll ranks aspirants based on public support expressed on the firm’s live voting platform in the Nyanza region of Kisumu County.
How the candidates currently stand
Leslie Daniel Oyola of the Independent ticket sits clearly at the top with 57.9 percent. Elisha Jack Oraro of ODM comes second with 24.5 percent. Job Hosea Agago, also of ODM, takes third place with 15.5 percent.
Former Member of Parliament Olago Aluoch of Ford-Kenya recorded 0.9 percent. Stephen Omondi Olewe (Independent) and Stephen Okello Ochieng (Independent) each received 0.6 percent.
Willis Otieno Ayara (Independent) registered 0 percent. These percentages form the final rankings released by Mwelekeo Insights.
The wide gap between the leader and the rest of the field suggests that many participants already favour one main candidate. Oyola’s strong showing gives him early momentum. Oraro, who serves as Speaker of the Kisumu County Assembly and runs on an ODM ticket, holds a solid second position. Agago, also under the ODM banner, keeps a noticeable share that places him firmly in third.
The presence of candidates from ODM, Ford-Kenya and Independent tickets shows that the race includes people from different political backgrounds. Local development issues, party support in Nyanza and grassroots work will likely shape how these figures change as the 2027 elections draw closer.
Kisumu West has a history of competitive parliamentary contests, and this survey offers an early look at public preference.
Candidates will need to strengthen their links with residents, explain their plans clearly and work hard on the ground if they want to improve their positions. While Oyola currently leads, politics in the area can shift quickly when alliances form or new issues arise.
This Kisumu West poll is part of the ongoing political research by Mwelekeo Insights.
Similar surveys have recently covered other races. In the Kiambu County Woman Representative survey, Angel Mbuthia of the Jubilee Party led with 38.1 percent, followed by Rosemary Kinuthia of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) at 21 percent, Mercy Nungari of DCP at 15.7 percent, Wanjiku Ngochi of the People’s Liberation Party (PLP) at 11.9 percent, Phyllis Wangui of DCP at 9.7 percent and Ann Muratha of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 3.7 percent.
In the Kirinyaga County Woman Representative survey, Rose Wachira Karani led with 45.2 percent, followed by Carolyne Karimi Mugo at 27.4 percent and the incumbent Jane Njeri Maina at 16.7 percent. These earlier polls, like the Kisumu West findings, help track public opinion ahead of the 2027 elections.
Mwelekeo Insights
Mwelekeo Insights is a leading research company in Kenya that specialises in gathering and analysing public opinion on politics, governance, economic trends and social issues.
The firm uses digital platforms and other methods to measure voter preferences, candidate popularity and community views.
Through its series of live political surveys on parliamentary, senatorial, gubernatorial and women representative seats, Mwelekeo Insights provides clear, data-driven insights that help political parties, policymakers and the public.
Its past political research has covered races across many counties, offering early signs of who is leading in different contests and helping people understand emerging trends before the next general election.
